Mega Brave Pull Rates, Best Cards & Box Value
The Mega Lucario ex MUR — the first card in a brand-new gold rarity — has climbed past $340 on the JPN market. Lillie’s Determination SAR holds steady near $333. Seven months after release, Mega Brave remains the most talked-about set in the MEGA era.
Mega Brave (M1L) launched the MEGA series on August 1, 2025, bringing back Mega Evolution Pokemon and introducing the MUR (Mega Ultra Rare) rarity for the first time. Collectors in the US, UK, and Australia are still chasing these JPN-exclusive cards, and with the initial price surge now settled, the market has reached a more accessible range.
This guide covers the current JPN market prices from SNKRDUNK and Mercari, pull rates from opening data, a full box EV calculation, and a clear breakdown of who should buy this set and when. Our team at Samurai Sword INC ships over 100 Japanese booster boxes from Tokyo every week — here is what the data says about Mega Brave as of March 2026.
Mega Brave’s box EV gap is only -4.3% at current prices — one of the tightest in the MEGA series. Mega Lucario ex MUR ($347) and Lillie’s Determination SAR ($333) anchor the value, with a ~28% SAR pull rate per box.
Mega Brave — Set Overview
Mega Brave is the first expansion pack in the MEGA series, marking a new chapter for the Pokemon TCG with Mega Evolution Pokemon and the debut of the MUR rarity.
Set Specs
| Detail | Info |
|---|---|
| Set Name | Mega Brave (M1L) / メガブレイブ |
| Series | MEGA Series (First Expansion) |
| Release Date (JPN) | August 1, 2025 |
| English Equivalent | Mega Evolution — September 26, 2025 |
| Total Cards | 92 (63 base + 29 secret rares) |
| Packs per Box | 30 |
| Cards per Pack | 5 |
| MSRP | ¥5,400 (~$36) / Market price: ~¥9,500 (~$63) |
| Key Rarities | MUR (1), SAR (5), SR (11), AR (12) |
Prices as of March 2026. Market prices based on SNKRDUNK data.
What Makes This Set Special
MUR (Mega Ultra Rare) debuted here. This gold-textured rarity applies a full gold foil treatment across the entire card — not just a gold border like previous UR cards. The Mega Lucario ex MUR features unique artwork distinct from its SAR counterpart, making it a standalone collectible rather than a simple recolor.
Lillie’s Determination is the set’s other headline. Lillie consistently commands premium prices across every set she appears in, and her SAR in Mega Brave has become one of the most expensive Supporter cards in recent memory. The card is also a competitive staple, driving demand from both collectors and players.
Five Mega Evolution Pokemon ex headline the set: Mega Lucario ex, Mega Venusaur ex, Mega Absol ex, Mega Mawile ex, and Mega Camerupt ex. Each appears in multiple rarities, giving collectors several tiers of chase cards to pursue.
Based on our daily handling of 100+ boxes, the print quality on Mega Brave is among the best in the MEGA series — the gold foil on MUR cards and the texture work on SARs stand out even compared to later sets like Inferno X and Ninja Spinner.
JPN vs English Release Timeline
| Milestone | JPN (Mega Brave M1L) | ENG (Mega Evolution) |
|---|---|---|
| Release Date | August 1, 2025 | September 26, 2025 |
| Set Composition | Mega Brave only (92 cards) | Mega Brave + Mega Symphonia combined |
| MUR Availability | Yes (Mega Lucario ex) | Equivalent as MHR |
| Price Premium | 15-40% higher (historical) | Base price |
| Current BOX Price | ~$63 (¥9,500 SNKRDUNK) | ~$95 (TCGPlayer) |
JPN Mega Brave cards have traded at a 15-40% premium over their English Mega Evolution equivalents since launch, particularly for SAR and MUR/MHR rarities. The JPN printing quality — textured holofoil and sharper color saturation — continues to drive this gap.
Top 10 Most Valuable Cards in Mega Brave
The Mega Lucario ex MUR ($247) and Lillie’s Determination SAR ($320) lead a chase card lineup that has held value better than most MEGA series sets. Here are the 10 most valuable cards based on current JPN market data.
| Rank | Card | Rarity | JPN Price (¥) | USD Est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mega Lucario ex | MUR | ¥52,000 | ~$347 |
| 2 | Lillie’s Determination | SAR | ¥50,000 | ~$333 |
| 3 | Mega Lucario ex | SAR | ¥12,000 | ~$80 |
| 4 | Lillie’s Determination | SR | ¥12,000 | ~$80 |
| 5 | Mega Venusaur ex | SAR | ¥8,500 | ~$57 |
| 6 | Mega Absol ex | SAR | ¥4,800 | ~$32 |
| 7 | Bulbasaur | AR | ¥1,600 | ~$11 |
| 8 | Mega Venusaur ex | SR | ¥1,400 | ~$9 |
| 9 | Mega Lucario ex | SR | ¥1,400 | ~$9 |
| 10 | Lt. Surge’s Deal | SAR | ¥1,000 | ~$7 |
JPN prices: Mercari/SNKRDUNK averages as of March 2026. USD converted at approximately ¥150/USD.
#1 Mega Lucario ex — MUR (Mega Ultra Rare)
JPN Market: ~¥52,000 ($347)
The card that launched a new rarity. Mega Lucario ex MUR features a full gold-foil treatment with a unique illustration that differs entirely from the SAR version. The artwork depicts Mega Lucario in a dynamic fighting pose against a golden backdrop — a visual style that recalls the premium Black & White era UR cards.
With an estimated pull rate of roughly 1 in 50 boxes (about 1 in 1,500 packs), this is one of the hardest cards to pull in the modern era. The MUR launched at approximately ¥50,000 in August 2025, briefly dipped to around ¥37,000, and has since rebounded to approximately ¥52,000 as of March 2026. Lucario’s enduring popularity as a fan-favorite Fighting-type, combined with the novelty of the MUR rarity, continues to push demand higher.
From our experience shipping to US and UK customers, the JPN-sourced price ($347) offers better value than international marketplace premiums for collectors who buy through Japan-based exporters.
#2 Lillie’s Determination — SAR (Special Art Rare)
JPN Market: ~¥50,000 ($333)
Lillie is the most premium-commanding character in the Pokemon card market. Every set that features a Lillie card sees it climb to the top of the value charts, and Mega Brave follows that pattern exactly. The SAR illustration portrays Lillie in a determined pose with her signature white outfit — a full-art composition that has drawn comparisons to the beloved Lillie cards from the Sun & Moon era.
This card launched at roughly ¥70,000, corrected to the ¥38,000-40,000 range, and has since rebounded to approximately ¥50,000. The trajectory has been anything but linear — a renewed price surge in early 2026 confirmed strong collector demand. The card is also competitively playable as a strong draw-support Trainer, creating dual demand from collectors and tournament players.
For collectors, this is the set’s emotional centerpiece. Lillie SARs from previous sets (such as the VSTAR Universe variant) have appreciated over time, giving this card a solid track record as a long-term hold.
Mega Venusaur ex — SAR (Special Art Rare)
JPN Market: ~¥8,500 ($57)
The nostalgia factor carries real weight. Mega Venusaur ex SAR showcases the Generation 1 starter in a lush, garden-themed full-art illustration. As one of the original 151 Pokemon, Venusaur carries cross-generational appeal that keeps demand stable. At around $57, this is one of the most accessible premium chase cards and an attractive entry point for collectors who want a high-end card from the set without the four-figure commitment.
Cards #3–10
#3 Mega Lucario ex SAR (¥12,000 / ~$80) — The SAR features a distinct illustration from the MUR, showing Mega Lucario in a more action-oriented battle scene. A strong mid-range chase card that has gained value since launch.
#4 Lillie’s Determination SR (¥12,000 / ~$80) — The full-art SR version is the most expensive SR in years. Players who want Lillie’s powerful draw effect without paying SAR prices gravitate here.
#5 Mega Venusaur ex SAR (¥8,500 / ~$57) — Covered in detail above.
#6 Mega Absol ex SAR (¥4,800 / ~$32) — Absol’s dark aesthetic translates well to the SAR treatment. Popular among collectors of Dark-type Pokemon.
#7 Bulbasaur AR (¥1,600 / ~$11) — The highest-value AR in the set. Bulbasaur’s evergreen popularity makes this a fun bonus pull that has actually risen in price.
#8 Mega Venusaur ex SR (¥1,400 / ~$9) — The budget-friendly full-art Venusaur. Solid pickup for binder collectors.
#9 Mega Lucario ex SR (¥1,400 / ~$9) — The standard full-art version. A fraction of the MUR price but still a satisfying pull.
#10 Lt. Surge’s Deal SAR (¥1,000 / ~$7) — The most affordable SAR in the set. Lt. Surge’s polarizing design has kept prices low, which some collectors see as an opportunity.
For a comparison with other MEGA sets, check our MEGA Dream ex guide.
Should You Buy a Mega Brave Box?
At ~$63 per box, Mega Brave offers one of the strongest value propositions in the MEGA series — strong chase cards, guaranteed SR/AR pulls, and a market price well below launch peaks.
At ~¥9,500 (~$63), Mega Brave boxes are 40-50% below their launch price of ¥12,000-15,000. Every box guarantees 2 SRs + 3 ARs, with a ~28% chance at a SAR.
For Collectors: A Strong Yes
Mega Brave delivers on two fronts that matter most to collectors: premium chase cards with stunning artwork, and a satisfying base of guaranteed rares.
Every box guarantees at least 2 SR cards, 3 AR cards, and 4-5 RR cards. That floor alone provides a solid binder-filling experience. The real excitement comes from the ~28% chance of pulling a SAR and the outside shot at the MUR.
The Lillie’s Determination cards (both SAR and SR) are the kind of centerpiece cards that define a collection. If you collect Lillie cards or Pokemon character art, Mega Brave is a must-open set.
For Players: Worth Considering
Lillie’s Determination is a strong competitive Supporter that sees play across multiple deck archetypes. Pulling one from a box is the most cost-effective way to add it to your deck, given that the SR alone runs $79 as a single.
Mega Lucario ex has niche competitive applications in Fighting-type builds, and Lt. Surge’s Deal offers utility in certain strategies.
For Investors: Time Your Entry
Mega Brave is in the post-correction stabilization phase — seven months after release, prices have settled from launch highs. Lillie’s Determination SAR has shown renewed upward momentum, suggesting the bottom may already be in for top-tier cards.
- Reprint supply: Additional print runs would increase card supply. Monitor JPN restock announcements on SNKRDUNK.
- ENG set equivalents: The English Mega Evolution set has already released. JPN cards maintain a premium, but the gap narrows over time.
- Lillie track record: Lillie cards have consistently appreciated long-term. The SAR could be a hold candidate.
| Factor | Box Opening | Singles Purchase |
|---|---|---|
| Cost Control | Fixed per box (~$63) | You choose exact cards |
| Chase Card Access | Luck-dependent | Guaranteed (at market price) |
| Guaranteed Floor | 2 SR + 3 AR + 4 RR | Only what you buy |
| Upside Potential | MUR/SAR pull = big win | No surprises |
| Opening Experience | Priceless | — |
Pull Rates & Box EV Breakdown
The typical Mega Brave box returns roughly ¥9,100 in card value against a ~¥9,500 market price — a -4.3% gap that is remarkably tight for a standard expansion.
Box EV: ~¥9,100 (~$61) | Box Price: ~¥9,500 (~$63) | Gap: -4.3%. Most standard expansions show a -20% to -40% gap at this stage.
SR and AR guaranteed slots provide a solid value floor in every box. The variable SAR and MUR slots are where the upside lives.
Pull Rates by Rarity
| Rarity | Estimated Rate (per BOX) | Cards in Set |
|---|---|---|
| MUR | ~1 in 50 boxes (~2%) | 1 |
| SAR | ~1 in 3.6 boxes (~28%) | 5 |
| SR (Pokemon/Supporter) | ~1 in 9 boxes per card (~11%) | 6 |
| SR (Trainer/Item) | 1 per box (100%) | 5 |
| AR | 3 per box (100%) | 12 |
| RR | 4-5 per box (100%) | ~15 |
Estimated based on community opening data. Not officially confirmed by The Pokemon Company.
Box EV Calculation
| Component | Avg. Value | Pull Rate (/BOX) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| MUR (Mega Lucario ex) | ¥52,000 | 0.02 | ¥1,040 |
| SAR (5 types, avg) | ¥15,260 | 0.28 | ¥4,273 |
| SR Pokemon/Supporter | ¥3,000 | 0.11 | ¥330 |
| SR Trainer (guaranteed) | ¥800 | 1.0 | ¥800 |
| AR (3 guaranteed) | ¥550 | 3.0 | ¥1,650 |
| RR (4 guaranteed) | ¥200 | 4.0 | ¥800 |
| Bulk (R, U, C) | — | — | ~¥200 |
| Total Box EV | ~¥9,093 | ||
| Box Market Price | ~¥9,500 | ||
| EV Gap | -¥407 (-4.3%) |
EV calculation as of March 2026. Based on Mercari/SNKRDUNK average prices.
What the Variance Looks Like
Most boxes return ¥2,000-4,000 in card value from the guaranteed SR + AR + RR slots. But roughly 1 in 4 boxes hits a SAR, and if that SAR is Lillie’s Determination, a single pull covers 5+ box costs. The MUR is an outside shot at 1 in 50 boxes — but at ¥52,000, it pays for over 5 boxes on its own.
Three factors keep Mega Brave’s EV strong:
- Lillie’s Determination SAR (¥50,000) and Mega Lucario ex MUR (¥52,000) pull the top-end averages significantly upward.
- The guaranteed Trainer SR plus the chance at Pokemon/Supporter SRs provides a reliable baseline.
- AR quality: 3 guaranteed per box with an average around ¥500 contributes more than in most sets.
Price Trends & Market Outlook
The Mega Lucario ex MUR has surged past its launch price, and Lillie’s Determination SAR shows renewed strength — two signs that the post-launch correction phase has ended for Mega Brave’s top cards. Mid-tier cards have continued to settle.
Card Price Movement Since Launch
| Card | Launch (Aug 2025) | Current (Mar 2026) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Lucario ex MUR | ¥50,000 | ¥52,000 | Rebounded past launch price |
| Lillie’s Determination SAR | ¥70,000 | ¥50,000 | Corrected, then rebounded |
| Mega Lucario ex SAR | ¥14,000 | ¥12,000 | Near-stable after correction |
| Mega Venusaur ex SAR | ¥18,000 | ¥8,500 | Continued correction |
| Lillie’s Determination SR | ¥16,800 | ¥12,000 | Historically high SR level |
BOX Price History
| Period | SNKRDUNK BOX Price | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Launch (Aug 2025) | ¥12,000-15,000 | Lottery allocation, severe shortage |
| 3 months post (Nov 2025) | ¥10,000-11,000 | Restocks began, supply eased |
| Current (Mar 2026) | ¥9,000-10,000 | Stable range, accessible pricing |
Timing Strategies
Buying now (March 2026): The market has completed its primary correction. BOX prices are stable and card values have found a floor for most cards. This is a reasonable entry point for collectors who want to open boxes at established market value.
Prefer to wait: Further restocks could push BOX prices slightly lower, but dramatic drops are unlikely. The wildcard is Lillie’s Determination SAR — if it continues rebounding, waiting could mean higher singles prices.
Sealed collectors: Mega Brave boxes at ~¥9,500 are a hold candidate. As the first MEGA series expansion, the set carries historical significance. Past first-of-series sets have appreciated 12-18 months after production ends.
All prices reflect secondary market data as of March 2026 via SNKRDUNK and Mercari. Prices fluctuate with supply and demand.
Where to Buy Japanese Mega Brave Boxes
Mega Brave booster boxes are available through several channels for international buyers.
From Japan-based export shops (like Samurai Sword INC): Direct access to JPN market pricing, authentic shrink-wrapped boxes, and tracked international shipping from Tokyo. Based on our experience shipping to 30+ countries, this is the most reliable route for sealed JPN product. We serial-track every box — if a resealed or searched box is ever reported, we identify the supplier and permanently remove them from our sourcing chain.
What to expect with shipping:
- Delivery to US/CA: 7-14 business days (tracked)
- Delivery to UK/AU: 10-18 business days (tracked)
- Import duties vary by country — check your local customs thresholds
Authenticity check: Look for intact original shrink wrap and the M1L set code printed on the box. JPN Mega Brave boxes contain 30 packs of 5 cards each.
For a side-by-side comparison of all current Japanese booster boxes, see our Best Japanese Pokemon Booster Boxes 2026 ranking. For importing tips, see our guide to buying Japanese Pokemon cards from Japan.
View complete Mega Brave card list →
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the pull rates for Mega Brave?
Each Mega Brave box (30 packs) guarantees 1 Trainer SR, 3 Art Rares, and 4-5 Double Rares. The chance of pulling a Special Art Rare (SAR) from a single box is approximately 28%. The Mega Ultra Rare (MUR) Mega Lucario ex appears in roughly 1 out of every 50 boxes, or about a 2% chance per box. These are community-estimated rates, not officially confirmed by The Pokemon Company.
What is the most expensive card in Mega Brave?
As of March 2026, the Mega Lucario ex MUR (092/063) leads at approximately ¥52,000 (~$347) on the JPN market. Lillie’s Determination SAR (091/063) follows closely at approximately ¥50,000 (~$333). Both cards have rebounded from post-launch lows and show strong collector demand.
Is a Mega Brave box worth buying?
At the current market price of approximately ¥9,500 (~$63), Mega Brave offers a narrow EV gap of about -4.3%, which is strong for a standard expansion. Every box guarantees SR and AR pulls, and you have a roughly 1-in-4 chance at a SAR worth $7-$333. For collectors who enjoy the opening experience and appreciate Mega Evolution artwork, Mega Brave is one of the better options in the current MEGA series.
What is MUR rarity in Pokemon cards?
MUR stands for Mega Ultra Rare, a new rarity introduced with the MEGA series starting from Mega Brave. MUR cards feature a full gold-foil treatment across the entire card surface with unique artwork different from other versions of the same Pokemon. The pull rate is approximately 1 in 50 boxes. The English equivalent rarity is called MHR (Mega Hyper Rare).
When did Mega Brave release in English?
The English equivalent of Mega Brave is part of the “Mega Evolution” set, which released on September 26, 2025. The English set combines cards from both JPN Mega Brave (M1L) and Mega Symphonia (M1S) into a single larger set. JPN-exclusive artwork and the original printing quality are only available in the Japanese version.
How does Mega Brave compare to other MEGA series sets?
Mega Brave was the first MEGA series expansion, alongside Mega Symphonia. Subsequent sets include MEGA Dream ex (하이클래스팩), Inferno X (M3), and Ninja Spinner (M4). As the inaugural set, Mega Brave introduced the MUR rarity and set the template for the series. Its Lillie’s Determination SAR remains one of the highest-value Supporter cards across all MEGA sets.
⚡ Ready to Open Packs?
Get the M1L-Mega Brave booster box — shipped directly from Tokyo, Japan with tracking & insurance.