Gardevoir ex SAR from Scarlet ex is holding at ¥21,000 (~$150) — a card worth six times the box it comes in. Scarlet ex pull rates and card values have stabilized into one of the best risk-to-reward ratios in the entire Scarlet & Violet era, and most collectors outside Japan have not caught on yet.
SV1S launched on January 20, 2023, as the very first expansion pack of the Scarlet & Violet generation. It introduced the ex mechanic, the new rarity system with Art Rares and Special Art Rares, and a roster of Paldea-era Pokémon that defined the start of a new competitive and collector cycle. Three years later, sealed boxes have settled below the ¥5,400 MSRP — one of the few SV sets where market price dips under retail.
Here is what the March 2026 data shows for Scarlet ex: the top 10 most valuable cards with current SNKRDUNK and Mercari market prices, real pull rate data from Japanese opening reports, a full box EV breakdown, and the case for picking up this set at its current price. Our team tracks JPN market data daily and handles hundreds of sealed boxes each month.
Scarlet ex — Set Overview
Scarlet ex (SV1S) holds a unique position as the very first expansion of the Scarlet & Violet era — the set that kicked off a new generation of Pokémon TCG.
Release Date, Price & Pack Contents
| Spec | Detail |
|---|---|
| Set Name | Scarlet ex (スカーレットex) |
| Set Code | SV1S |
| JPN Release | January 20, 2023 |
| ENG Equivalent | Scarlet & Violet Base Set (March 31, 2023) |
| MSRP | ¥5,400 → Market price: ¥3,500 (~$25) |
| Packs per Box | 30 |
| Cards per Pack | 5 |
| Total Cards | 108 (78 main + 30 secret rares) |
| Secret Rares | 5 SAR, 3 UR, 10 SR, 12 AR |
Prices as of March 2026 (SNKRDUNK secondary market data).
The Dawn of the SV Era
Scarlet ex marked a fundamental shift in the Pokémon TCG. The ex mechanic returned (lowercase "ex," distinct from the uppercase EX of the XY era), bringing a new approach to powerful Pokémon cards with a two-Prize rule. Koraidon ex and the Paldea lineup debuted here alongside the Terastal mechanic that would define competitive play for years.
For collectors, the set introduced the modern rarity hierarchy that still applies today: Art Rares (AR) as accessible collectibles, Special Art Rares (SAR) as the premium chase cards, and Ultra Rares (UR) as gold-bordered chase cards. Every SV set that followed built on this foundation, which gives SV1S a "first edition" appeal that other sets lack.
JPN vs ENG Scarlet & Violet Base Set
The English-language equivalent is the Scarlet & Violet Base Set, released on March 31, 2023. The ENG version combines cards from both SV1S (Scarlet ex) and SV1V (Violet ex), creating a larger set with a different pull rate structure.
Key differences for collectors considering JPN vs ENG:
| Factor | JPN (SV1S) | ENG (SV Base Set) |
|---|---|---|
| Release | Jan 20, 2023 | Mar 31, 2023 |
| Box Price | ~¥3,500 (~$25) | ~$80-100 |
| Print Quality | Higher-rated texture and foil | Standard |
| Card Pool | 108 cards (SV1S only) | 258 cards (SV1S + SV1V combined) |
| Price Premium | 15-40% over ENG equivalents | Baseline |
| SAR Pool | 5 SARs | Combined SAR pool |
JPN versions of the same card historically trade at a 15-40% premium over their English counterparts. At ¥3,500 (~$25) per box versus $80-100 for the ENG version, the JPN box offers significantly better value per dollar right now. For a deeper comparison of JPN and ENG Pokémon cards, see our complete JPN vs ENG guide.
Top 10 Most Valuable Cards in Scarlet ex
Gardevoir ex SAR dominates this set by a wide margin, sitting at six times the price of the second-most valuable card. The gap tells you everything about where collector demand is concentrated.
| Rank | Card | Rarity | Price (¥) | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gardevoir ex | SAR | ¥21,000 | ~$150 |
| 2 | Koraidon ex | SAR | ¥5,500 | ~$39 |
| 3 | Nest Ball | UR | ¥3,800 | ~$27 |
| 4 | Penny | SAR | ¥2,200 | ~$16 |
| 5 | Fighting Energy | UR | ¥2,200 | ~$16 |
| 6 | Penny | SR | ¥1,600 | ~$11 |
| 7 | Professor's Research (Sada) | SR | ¥1,500 | ~$11 |
| 8 | Koraidon ex | UR | ¥1,380 | ~$10 |
| 9 | Jacq | SAR | ¥1,100 | ~$8 |
| 10 | Great Tusk ex | SAR | ¥1,000 | ~$7 |
Prices as of March 2026. Sources: SNKRDUNK, Mercari completed sales.
#1 Gardevoir ex SAR — ¥21,000 (~$150)
Gardevoir ex SAR is the undisputed chase card of Scarlet ex and one of the most valuable SARs from the early Scarlet & Violet era. At ¥21,000 (~$150), it is worth six times the current box price — a ratio that makes every sealed box a legitimate lottery ticket.
Gardevoir has consistently ranked among the top three most popular Pokémon characters in official polls, and this SAR treatment showcases the Embrace Pokémon in a stunning full-art composition. The card's Psychic Embrace ability also saw significant competitive play in the early SV meta, creating demand from both collectors and players.
PSA 10 copies trade at ¥30,000-35,000 (~$215-$250). JPN prints from this era have clean centering, so PSA 10 hit rates tend to be favorable if the card is pulled from a pack in good condition.
#2 Koraidon ex SAR — ¥5,500 (~$39)
Koraidon ex SAR is the box mascot and the face of Pokémon Scarlet itself. At ¥5,500 (~$39), it is a solid mid-range pull that exceeds the box cost on its own. Koraidon's SAR art features the ancient Paradox Pokémon in a dynamic composition that stands apart from the standard ex artwork.
As the version-exclusive legendary of Pokémon Scarlet, Koraidon carries built-in franchise recognition. This card saw a price adjustment from its launch peak of around ¥17,000 but has stabilized in the ¥5,000-6,000 range as the set matured. For collectors who missed it at release, the current price represents fair value.
#3 Nest Ball UR — ¥3,800 (~$27)
Nest Ball UR is a Trainer card that holds value for a simple reason: it is one of the most universally played cards in the Pokémon TCG. Every competitive deck needs Pokémon search, and Nest Ball does the job. The gold Ultra Rare treatment turns a staple into a flex piece for players who want to bling out their decks.
Gold Trainer URs from early SV sets tend to hold value better than Pokémon URs because competitive players create sustained demand. The original Nest Ball UR from Collection Moon (SM1M) now trades above ¥40,000, which gives SV1S's version long-term upside as a functional collectible.
Cards #4–#10
| Rank | Card | Rarity | Price | Why It Holds Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penny SAR | SAR | ¥2,200 (~$16) | Popular SV-era trainer character. Budget SAR entry point for character collectors |
| 5 | Fighting Energy UR | UR | ¥2,200 (~$16) | Gold energy cards are collector staples. Clean design with long-term hold potential |
| 6 | Penny SR | SR | ¥1,600 (~$11) | Full-art trainer SR. Penny's character popularity drives demand beyond the SAR |
| 7 | Professor's Research (Sada) SR | SR | ¥1,500 (~$11) | Sada is tied to Scarlet's storyline. Trainer SRs from launch sets hold nostalgic value |
| 8 | Koraidon ex UR | UR | ¥1,380 (~$10) | Gold version of the box mascot. Lower than expected — Koraidon UR supply is higher |
| 9 | Jacq SAR | SAR | ¥1,100 (~$8) | Least expensive SAR in the set. Academy teacher character with modest collector appeal |
| 10 | Great Tusk ex SAR | SAR | ¥1,000 (~$7) | Ancient Paradox Pokémon. Impressive art but niche character appeal holds price down |
Should You Buy a Scarlet ex Box?
Scarlet ex is one of the strongest value plays in the SV lineup right now — a box below MSRP that contains a ¥21,000 chase card.
For Collectors
Scarlet ex is a strong buy at the current price point. At ¥3,500 (~$25) per box, the barrier to entry is among the lowest in the entire Scarlet & Violet catalog. You are essentially paying less than the retail price for a shot at Gardevoir ex SAR, a card worth 6x the box cost.
The set also carries historical significance as the very first SV expansion. First sets in each generation tend to develop nostalgia premium over time — similar to how Base Set, Neo Genesis, and Sun & Moon Base have appreciated as the opening chapters of their respective eras. SV1S is not at that stage yet, but the foundation is there.
If you collect Gardevoir, Koraidon, or the Paldea-era trainers like Penny and Sada, this set gives you multiple chase targets at a price that makes sealed box purchases practical. For more recommendations on which JPN boxes to pick up, check our best Japanese booster boxes guide.
For Investors
The investment case for Scarlet ex is more nuanced. The set has been reprinted multiple times, which pushed the box price below MSRP — a clear signal that current supply exceeds demand. Short-term appreciation is unlikely.
The long-term thesis rests on two factors:
- First-set premium: As the inaugural SV expansion, SV1S could develop collector premium once the SV era ends and nostalgia kicks in. This is a multi-year hold, not a quick flip.
- Gardevoir ex SAR floor: At ¥21,000, the Gardevoir SAR has found stable support. Gardevoir's enduring popularity across generations provides a demand floor that most character-specific cards lack.
At the current box price, the downside risk is minimal — you are buying below cost. The question is whether you have the patience to wait 3-5 years for potential appreciation.
For Players
Most competitive Pokémon cards from SV1S have rotated out of Standard format or been reprinted in newer sets. If you are looking for current meta staples, newer expansions offer better competitive value. Nest Ball remains a format staple, but it is cheaper to buy as a single than to chase it in sealed packs.
That said, SV1S packs make excellent casual opening material. At ¥3,500 per box, you get 150 cards and the chance to pull a high-value SAR for roughly the price of a fast-food meal in Tokyo.
| Buyer Type | Verdict | Best Action |
|---|---|---|
| Gardevoir Collector | Strong Buy | 3-6 boxes for a realistic SAR shot |
| SV-era Completionist | Buy | Add to your sealed collection at historic low prices |
| Short-term Investor | Hold | Wait for reprint cycle to end |
| Long-term Investor | Accumulate | Below-MSRP pricing = low downside entry |
| Competitive Player | Skip | Buy singles for current format staples |
If you are new to Japanese Pokémon cards, our beginner's guide to the best JPN sets covers how to choose your first box.
Pull Rates — What's in Your Box?
Scarlet ex follows the standard SV expansion pull rate structure: guaranteed hits in every box, with SAR and UR pulls requiring luck or volume.
Guaranteed Hits Per Box
Every Scarlet ex box (30 packs) includes:
| Category | Guaranteed Per Box | Average Value |
|---|---|---|
| RR (Double Rare) | 4 | ~¥150 each |
| AR (Art Rare) | 3 | ~¥200 each |
| SR (Super Rare) | 1 | ~¥500 avg |
| Holo/Reverse | Multiple | ~¥30 each |
Your floor value from guaranteed pulls alone is approximately ¥1,700 (~$12) per box. At a box cost of ¥3,500, the guaranteed cards already recover roughly half the purchase price — significantly better than most SV sets where the box costs ¥8,000-12,000.
SAR & UR Probability
The high-value pulls — SARs and URs — are probability-based:
| Rarity | Approximate Odds | Cards in Set | Notable Cards |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAR (Special Art Rare) | ~1 in 5-6 boxes | 5 | Gardevoir ex (¥21,000), Koraidon ex (¥5,500) |
| UR (Ultra Rare) | ~1 in 10 boxes | 3 | Nest Ball (¥3,800), Fighting Energy (¥2,200) |
These rates are estimated from Japanese community opening data and are not officially confirmed by The Pokémon Company. Actual results vary.
Six boxes at ¥3,500 each costs ¥21,000 (~$150) total, and that gives you roughly one SAR pull. If that SAR is the Gardevoir ex, a single card pays for all 6 boxes. The same 1-in-5 chance could also land you Jacq SAR at ¥1,100 — that variance is part of what makes sealed product exciting.
Box Contents Breakdown
| Component | Calculation | EV Per Box |
|---|---|---|
| 4× RR (guaranteed) | 4 × ¥150 avg | ¥600 |
| 3× AR (guaranteed) | 3 × ¥200 avg | ¥600 |
| 1× SR (guaranteed) | 1 × ¥500 avg | ¥500 |
| SAR chance (~1/5.5) | ¥6,160 × 1/5.5 | ¥1,120 |
| UR chance (~1/10) | ¥2,460 × 1/10 | ¥246 |
| Bulk (C/U/R) | ~140 cards | ¥150 |
| Total EV | ¥3,216 | |
| Box Cost | ¥3,500 | |
| EV Ratio | 91.9% |
A 92% EV ratio is outstanding for a Pokémon TCG expansion box. Most SV sets return 40-55% of the box cost in expected card value. Scarlet ex's ratio is inflated by the low box price — the cards have not changed, but the box got much cheaper.
The key insight: the same Gardevoir ex SAR that was pulling from ¥8,000 boxes at launch is now pulling from ¥3,500 boxes. Your cost-per-chance at the chase card has dropped by more than half.
Price Trends & Market Outlook
Scarlet ex has bottomed out — both sealed boxes and key singles have stabilized after three years of post-launch correction.
BOX Price History
| Period | Box Price (¥) | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Launch (Jan 2023) | ¥7,000-8,000 | Initial hype. Supply constrained |
| Mid 2023 | ¥5,000-6,000 | First reprint wave. Prices correct |
| 2024 | ¥4,000-5,000 | Multiple reprints. Supply catches up |
| 2025-2026 | ¥3,000-3,500 | Below MSRP. Market saturation |
The current price of approximately ¥3,500 represents a 50-55% correction from launch. This is not a crash — it is the natural result of a successful reprint program by The Pokémon Company. More boxes in circulation means lower sealed product prices, which is how the market is designed to work.
Key Card Price Stability
Gardevoir ex SAR tells a different story from the box price:
- Launch price (Jan 2023): ~¥35,000-40,000
- Post-reprint adjustment (2024): ~¥18,000-22,000
- Current (March 2026): ¥21,000
The card has found a support level around ¥20,000-22,000 and has held there for over a year. Gardevoir's cross-generational popularity creates a demand floor that does not depend on competitive viability or set hype. Similar patterns exist for Gardevoir SARs and alt arts from other eras — they tend to be "forever cards" that hold or appreciate. For more context on how JPN card prices move over time, see our market trends analysis.
Koraidon ex SAR has corrected more sharply, from ~¥17,000 at launch to ¥5,500 now. This is typical for box mascot cards: initial hype fades, and the card finds its true collector value. At ¥5,500, Koraidon offers solid value as the set's signature legendary.
Where to Buy Scarlet ex Boxes
For sealed Scarlet ex boxes shipped directly from Japan with full authenticity verification:
Every box ships with shrink wrap intact, and each unit is serial-tracked from our warehouse in Japan. If you receive a box with any sign of tampering, our serial tracking system lets us trace it back to the source — a level of accountability that most resellers cannot offer.
| Source | Typical Price | Shipping | Authenticity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samurai Sword INC | ¥3,500 (~$25) | Tracked worldwide | Serial-tracked, shrink-verified |
| eBay (US sellers) | $35-50 | Varies | Seller-dependent |
| Amazon Japan | ¥4,000-5,000 | Via forwarding service | Marketplace risk |
| TCGPlayer | $40-60 | US domestic | Seller-dependent |
Scarlet ex boxes from unauthorized resellers occasionally surface without shrink wrap or with resealed packaging. Always verify shrink wrap integrity and purchase from sellers who can demonstrate provenance.
The Bottom Line
Scarlet ex is one of the rare Pokémon TCG sets where market dynamics have created a genuine opportunity for collectors and long-term holders.
Three things make this set stand out right now:
- Below-MSRP pricing: At ¥3,500 (~$25), sealed boxes cost less than their original retail price — one of the only SV sets where this is true
- Gardevoir ex SAR at ¥21,000: A single card worth 6x the box cost creates a risk-reward ratio unmatched in the current SV lineup
- First-set historical value: As the inaugural Scarlet & Violet expansion, SV1S carries the same "chapter one" appeal that has historically driven appreciation in previous Pokémon generations
The opening math is favorable: spend ¥21,000 (~$150) on 6 boxes, and you get a realistic shot at pulling a card worth that entire investment from a single pull. Even without the SAR, you collect 900 cards from the set that started it all — at a cost per card that is hard to beat anywhere in the hobby.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the pull rates for Scarlet ex?
Each Scarlet ex box (30 packs) guarantees 4 RR, 3 AR, and 1 SR or better. SARs appear approximately once every 5-6 boxes, and URs approximately once every 10 boxes. These rates are estimated from Japanese community opening data — The Pokémon Company does not publish official pull rates. Prices as of March 2026.
What is the most expensive card in Scarlet ex?
Gardevoir ex SAR (101/078) is the most valuable card at ¥21,000 (~$150) as of March 2026. It has held above ¥20,000 for over a year, supported by Gardevoir's enduring popularity across the Pokémon franchise. PSA 10 copies trade at ¥30,000-35,000.
Is a Scarlet ex box worth buying in 2026?
At ¥3,500 (~$25) per box — below the original MSRP of ¥5,400 — Scarlet ex offers strong value. The box contains a ¥21,000 Gardevoir ex SAR as the top chase card, giving a 92% EV ratio. For collectors, the below-MSRP pricing makes sealed box purchases practical. For short-term investors, expect minimal price movement until the reprint cycle ends.
How many secret rares are in Scarlet ex?
Scarlet ex contains 30 secret rares: 12 Art Rares (AR), 10 Super Rares (SR), 5 Special Art Rares (SAR), and 3 Ultra Rares (UR). The main set has 78 cards, bringing the total to 108.
What is the difference between Scarlet ex and Violet ex?
Scarlet ex (SV1S) and Violet ex (SV1V) are companion sets released on the same day (January 20, 2023). Scarlet ex features Koraidon ex and ancient Paradox Pokémon, while Violet ex features Miraidon ex and future Paradox Pokémon. They share no cards — each has its own unique card pool. The English Scarlet & Violet Base Set combines cards from both JPN sets into one larger set.
Can you pull a God Pack from Scarlet ex?
No. God Packs are exclusive to High Class Packs (like VSTAR Universe and Shiny Treasure ex) and certain special sets. Standard expansion packs like Scarlet ex do not contain God Packs. Every box guarantees at least 1 SR or better, plus 3 ARs and 4 RRs.
How does Scarlet ex compare to other SV sets for value?
Scarlet ex has one of the highest EV ratios in the SV era at approximately 92%, driven primarily by its low box price rather than exceptionally high card values. Sets like Shiny Treasure ex and Terastal Festival ex have higher absolute card values but also cost 2-3x more per box.