One card in this set is worth eight boxes. Your odds of pulling it are somewhere around one in fifty.
Three weeks after release, the repricing has broadened: sealed-box lowest asks are down to about ¥16,900 with shrink / ¥13,898 without shrink (SNKRDUNK, August 19), and the Mega Rayquaza ex MUR — which held ¥300,000–350,000 A-grade asks through week one — has corrected roughly 60% to ¥135,000 A-grade (near mint) / ¥104,800 B-grade. The SAR sits at ¥54,880 A-grade / ¥46,500 B-grade versus ¥138,000 on day one. Raikou ex SAR asks are at ¥7,000 A-grade / ¥6,000 B-grade and Zinnia’s Trust SAR at ¥3,099 A-grade / ¥2,680 B-grade. The tables below are preserved at day-one prices as the baseline; adjust EV math down accordingly. Our own direct-from-Tokyo box is currently listed at ¥11,040 (~$69) as of September 7, 2026.
Storm Emeralda (M6) released in Japan on July 31, 2026, and it packs 37 secret rares behind a 76-card base set — twelve Art Rares, eighteen Super Rares, six Special Art Rares, and one Mega Ultra Rare sitting at the very top. Knowing which of those you can realistically expect from a box, and which are effectively lottery tickets, is the difference between a satisfying rip and an expensive lesson.
This guide gives you estimated pull rates by rarity, the full value ranking of what’s worth pulling, a box EV breakdown at current Japanese prices, and how M6’s structure compares to the MEGA sets before it. Our team handles Japanese sealed product daily out of Tokyo, and every price below comes from the Japanese market we buy and sell in. If you’re waiting on the English version instead: Storm Emeralda’s international counterpart, Mega Evolution — Delta Reign (ME06), releases November 6, 2026 (Build & Battle Kits November 20), with its card list still unannounced and hobby-shop pre-orders live since mid-August at about $199.90 per booster box — a retail ask, not MSRP — see our Delta Reign release date guide.
A 30-pack Storm Emeralda box reliably produces 4–5 Art Rares and 2–3 Super Rares. A SAR lands roughly once every 2–3 boxes and is what carries a box’s value; the MUR Mega Rayquaza ex is estimated at 1 per 50–100 boxes. All rates are community estimates — The Pokemon Company does not publish official odds.
Our own M6 Storm Emeralda booster box is currently listed at ¥11,040 (~$69); a shrink-damaged box is listed at ¥12,960 (~$82).
Storm Emeralda Pull Rates at a Glance
Here are the estimated rates for a 30-pack Japanese box, based on opening data from the recent MEGA-series sets:
| Rarity | Estimated rate | What that means |
|---|---|---|
| AR Art Rare | ~4–5 per box | Effectively guaranteed, multiple times |
| RR Double Rare | ~6 per box | Guaranteed, the volume filler |
| SR Super Rare | ~2–3 per box | Reliable, 2 is the common outcome |
| SAR Special Art Rare | ~1 per 2–3 boxes | Roughly a coin flip per box |
| MUR Mega Ultra Rare | ~1 per 50–100 boxes | Case-level odds, not box-level |
Estimated from community opening data of recent MEGA sets (Mega Symphonia, Abyss Eye). Not officially confirmed — treat as directional.
The important read here is the gap between SAR and MUR. An SAR is something you can plan around across a few boxes. The MUR is not something to buy boxes for — at one per 50–100 boxes, it’s a bonus outcome layered on top of a purchase that has to make sense without it.
What’s Actually in the Set
Storm Emeralda runs a 76-card base set with 37 secret rares on top, for 113 cards total.
| Tier | Count | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Base set | 76 | 62 Pokemon, 11 Trainers, includes 4 Mega ex |
| AR Art Rare | 12 | Includes Kyogre and Groudon |
| SR Super Rare | 18 | Includes Goods and special energy SRs |
| SAR Special Art Rare | 6 | Rayquaza, Raikou, Zinnia’s Trust, Golisopod, Golurk + 1 |
| MUR Mega Ultra Rare | 1 | Mega Rayquaza ex 113/076 |
| Total | 113 | — |
Four Mega ex Pokemon headline the set: Rayquaza, Golisopod, Golurk, and Malamar. The set also introduces the two-part “Legendary Summit” Stadium — a left-and-right pair played together, the first mechanic of its kind.
Six SARs across a 37-card secret pool is a fairly standard loadout, and that matters for the odds below: your SAR hit is spread across six possible cards whose day-one values ranged from about $18 to about $850 — and the top of that range, the Rayquaza SAR, had corrected to roughly ¥46,500–54,880 asks by August 19, 2026. Which SAR you hit matters as much as whether you hit one. For the complete list with images, see our Storm Emeralda card list.
Best Cards to Pull, Ranked by Value
Current Japanese market prices, ranked. These are the cards that decide whether a box lands well:
| # | Card | Rarity | JPN price | USD approx. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mega Rayquaza ex 113/076 | MUR | ¥298,000 | ~$1,830 |
| 2 | Mega Rayquaza ex 110/076 | SAR | ¥138,000 | ~$850 |
| 3 | Raikou ex 108/076 | SAR | ¥16,800 | ~$103 |
| 4 | Zinnia’s Trust 112/076 | SAR | ¥9,980 | ~$61 |
| 5 | Mega Rayquaza ex 095/076 | SR | ¥7,980 | ~$49 |
| 6 | Mega Golisopod ex 107/076 | SAR | ¥4,480 | ~$27 |
| 7 | Mega Golurk ex 109/076 | SAR | ¥2,980 | ~$18 |
| 8 | Kyogre 080/076 | AR | ¥2,780 | ~$17 |
| 9 | Groudon 084/076 | AR | ¥2,780 | ~$17 |
Day-one prices (July 31, 2026), Japanese secondary market, at ¥163/USD — see the Week Three Update above for the August 19 direction of travel.
The top two
The gold MUR is the headline, but the SAR is the more meaningful target — at roughly one SAR per 2–3 boxes and six SARs in the pool, you have a realistic path to it across a small number of boxes, which you simply do not have with the MUR.
The sleeper and the entry point
Raikou ex SAR rose more than 40% during release day — it pulls demand from collectors for the artwork and from players for the card itself, which is the combination that tends to hold value best. Mega Rayquaza ex SR is the realistic prize: at 2–3 SRs per box you will see SRs regularly, and this is the one worth hoping for among them.
The two Art Rares worth naming are Kyogre and Groudon at about ¥2,780 each. Both climbed roughly 40% on release day as buyers assembled the Hoenn weather trio alongside Rayquaza — legendary-Pokemon ARs in MEGA sets have historically held their floor better than generic ARs.
Pull Rates by Rarity — What They Mean Per Box
Translating the rates into what actually happens when you open thirty packs:
- Every box gives you roughly 6 RR, 4–5 AR, and 2–3 SR. That’s your guaranteed layer — around a dozen cards with real secondary value before any chase card enters the picture.
- Roughly every other box gives you an SAR. Across three boxes you would expect one or two, spread randomly across the six SARs in the pool.
- Roughly one case in two to four (a case is 12 boxes) contains the MUR, at the 1-in-50-to-100 estimate. Most people who open a case will not see it.
The Pokemon Company has never published official pull rates for Japanese sets. Every figure here comes from aggregated community opening data on comparable MEGA-series products, and real boxes vary. Anyone quoting exact odds as fact is guessing with more confidence than the data supports.
Box EV Breakdown
First, the context that makes the numbers readable: modern sealed product is priced so that the average box returns less in singles than it costs. That is the standard structure across every current Japanese set, not a quirk of this one. What you’re buying is the guaranteed layer plus a real shot at a card that changes the math entirely — and the experience of opening it.
With that framing, here’s roughly where a Storm Emeralda box lands at current prices:
| Component | Typical contents | Rough value |
|---|---|---|
| Guaranteed AR layer | 4–5 Art Rares | ¥4,000–10,000 |
| Guaranteed SR layer | 2–3 Super Rares | ¥6,000–14,000 |
| RR + base cards | ~6 RR + bulk | ¥2,000–4,000 |
| SAR (~1 per 2–3 boxes) | 1 of 6 SARs when it hits | ¥2,980–138,000 |
| MUR (~1 per 50–100 boxes) | Tail outcome | ¥298,000 |
| Box price | — | ¥23,000–25,000 |
Estimates at day-one (July 31, 2026) prices; repricing through August 19 — the Rayquaza SAR falling from ¥138,000 to about ¥46,500–54,880 asks and the MUR from ¥298,000 to about ¥135,000 — pulls the realistic EV substantially lower, though box asks have fallen too. Actual results vary widely by box.
The guaranteed layer alone lands in the ballpark of ¥12,000–28,000 depending on which ARs and SRs you hit — so a good box of guaranteed cards can approach box price on its own before any SAR. The SAR line is where the variance lives: hitting the Golurk SAR (¥2,980) and hitting the Rayquaza SAR (¥138,000) are the same event statistically and a 46x difference in outcome.
Your SR and AR slots support the box’s baseline value. The SAR decides whether a box is average or excellent. The MUR is the tail — real, but not something to price into a purchase.
How M6 Compares to Recent MEGA Sets
Structurally, Storm Emeralda follows the MEGA-series template closely. What separates it is price level, not odds.
| Storm Emeralda (M6) | Recent MEGA sets (M-series) | |
|---|---|---|
| Packs per box | 30 | 30 |
| Estimated SAR rate | ~1 per 2–3 boxes | ~1 per 2–3 boxes |
| Estimated MUR rate | ~1 per 50–100 boxes | ~1 per 50–100 boxes |
| Launch box price | ¥23,000–25,000 | ~¥11,000 |
| Settled box price | ¥16,900 lowest ask (Aug 19, 2026; still settling) | ¥9,100–14,000 |
Mega Symphonia and Abyss Eye both peaked around launch and settled into the ¥9,100–14,000 range once reprint supply worked through. Storm Emeralda opened at roughly double their launch level, which tells you the market is treating Mega Rayquaza as a different tier of headliner rather than that the odds changed. Three weeks in, M6’s lowest asks (¥16,900 with shrink on August 19) are already tracking down toward that settling band.
For a set-agnostic explanation of how Japanese pull rates are structured in the first place, see our guide to how Japanese Pokemon pull rates work.
Rip a Box, or Buy the Single?
Both are defensible. The deciding question is what you actually want on the other side.
- You want one specific card. Buy the single. If the Raikou SAR at about ¥7,000 (~$48 at about ¥147/USD; August 19 ask) is the goal, a box (asks around ¥16,900 as of August 19, down from ¥23,000–25,000 on day one) with a coin-flip chance of landing one of six different SARs is the expensive route to it.
- You want the opening experience. Rip the box with the market context in view — singles prices have come down sharply from release week, so the same pull is worth less than it was at launch; the offset is that boxes themselves are cheaper too, and the community moment happens once.
- You want to build the set. Boxes are the efficient path. Thirty packs gets you a large chunk of the base set plus a dozen-odd hits; buying 113 cards individually costs far more in fees and shipping than it does in card value.
- You’re holding sealed. The question isn’t odds at all — it’s whether M6 follows the standard MEGA settling pattern or holds its premium the way Rayquaza-halo products historically have. Nobody knows, which is why setting your entry price in advance matters most on a set this hyped.
For the full day-1 market picture including box price history, see our Storm Emeralda release-day price report.
Where to Buy Storm Emeralda
we list Storm Emeralda sealed boxes directly from the Japanese market and ship worldwide from Tokyo with tracked delivery. Every box is shrink-wrapped, photographed condition-first, and packed for international transit.
A shrink-damaged box (cosmetic imperfections only, contents unaffected) is listed at ¥12,960 (~$82) via our Damaged Box listing. Singles and other current Japanese sets are available through our Quick Order page, and the full lineup is in our sealed booster box collection.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the Storm Emeralda pull rates?
Estimated per 30-pack box: ~6 RR, ~4–5 AR, ~2–3 SR, one SAR per 2–3 boxes, and one MUR per 50–100 boxes. These are community estimates from comparable MEGA-set opening data — official odds are not published.
How many SARs are in Storm Emeralda?
Six, within a 37-card secret-rare pool. Their day-one values ranged from about ¥2,980 (Mega Golurk ex) to ¥138,000 (Mega Rayquaza ex) — the Rayquaza SAR had corrected to about ¥46,500–54,880 asks by August 19, 2026 — so which SAR you hit matters as much as hitting one.
What are the odds of pulling the Mega Rayquaza ex MUR?
Roughly 1 in 50–100 boxes based on recent MEGA-series data. A case is 12 boxes, so most case openings will not contain it.
Is a Storm Emeralda box worth opening at current prices?
Box asks have eased to about ¥16,900 as of August 19, 2026 (from ¥23,000–25,000 at launch). At day-one prices the guaranteed AR and SR layer landed roughly in the ¥12,000–28,000 range depending on which cards hit — singles have repriced lower since — with the SAR (about a coin flip per box) deciding whether a box is average or excellent. Like all modern sealed product, the average box returns less in singles than it costs — you’re buying the guaranteed layer plus the chase.
How many cards are in Storm Emeralda?
113 total: a 76-card base set plus 37 secret rares (12 AR, 18 SR, 6 SAR, 1 MUR).
Pull rates are estimates based on community opening data of recent MEGA-series sets and are not officially confirmed. Prices are Japanese secondary-market snapshots taken July 31, 2026 (JST) at ¥163/USD, except where noted as SNKRDUNK marketplace asks of August 19, 2026 (SNKRDUNK condition ranks, A = near mint; USD at about ¥147/USD).
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