Greninja won Pokemon of the Year in 2020 — and now it's getting its first-ever Mega Evolution card.
Ninja Spinner (M4) drops in Japan on March 13, 2026, headlined by Mega Greninja ex in both SAR and MUR variants. The JPN community is already projecting the MUR at ¥70,000-120,000 ($449-$769) before a single box has been opened. For context, the last MEGA series MUR — Mega Charizard X from Inferno X — launched at ¥100,000 and has climbed to ¥138,000 since.
This guide covers everything you need before release day: the top 10 predicted chase cards with price ranges from two major JPN sources, estimated pull rates based on M-series patterns, a full EV breakdown, and a direct comparison between the JPN release and the English Chaos Rising set arriving in May.
We ship over 100 JPN booster boxes from Tokyo every week. Here's what our team is watching for Ninja Spinner.
Ninja Spinner Set Overview
Ninja Spinner is a standard MEGA Expansion Pack — not a High Class Pack like MEGA Dream ex. That distinction matters for both your wallet and your expectations.
Set Specs
| Detail | Info |
|---|---|
| Set Name | Ninja Spinner (ニンジャスピナー) |
| Set Code | M4 |
| Series | MEGA Series |
| Release Date (JPN) | March 13, 2026 |
| English Equivalent | Chaos Rising — May 22, 2026 |
| Total Cards | 83+ (base) / ~120 (with secret rares) |
| Packs per Box | 30 |
| Cards per Pack | 5 |
| MSRP | ¥5,400 (~$35) → Market price: ~¥10,000 (~$64) |
| Theme | Kalos Starters, Ninja, Legends Z-A |
Prices as of March 2026. Market prices reflect pre-release secondary market estimates. USD conversions at ¥156/USD.
What's New in This Set
Mega Greninja ex is the headline — the first-ever Mega Greninja card in TCG history. Its ability "Deadly Shuriken" lets you discard a Water Energy to place 6 damage counters on any of your opponent's Pokemon. The attack "Ninja Spinner" deals 120 base damage, plus 80 more if you return Water Energy to your hand. That's 200 damage with a built-in energy recycling loop.
Two competitive staples debut here: Big Catch Net returns up to 3 Water Pokemon and up to 3 Basic Water Energy from your discard pile to your deck — instant recovery for spent resources. Bubble Water Energy removes and prevents status conditions when attached. Water decks just got a serious upgrade.
The Kalos starter trio rounds out the set — Chesnaught, Delphox, and their full evolution lines all make appearances alongside Z-A characters like AZ and Roxie.
JPN vs English Release Timeline
| Milestone | JPN (Ninja Spinner) | ENG (Chaos Rising) |
|---|---|---|
| Release Date | March 13, 2026 | May 22, 2026 |
| Pre-order Window | Now (lottery-based) | TBA |
| Time Advantage | — | 2 months later |
| Price Premium (historical) | 15-40% higher | Base price |
JPN cards from the MEGA series have historically traded at a 15-40% premium over their English equivalents, especially for SAR and MUR rarities.
Top 10 Best Cards in Ninja Spinner
Two JPN sources — SNKRDUNK and altema — have published pre-release price predictions. Their estimates diverge significantly on the top cards, which tells you how much uncertainty exists before Day 1. We're presenting both ranges so you can set realistic expectations.
#1 Mega Greninja ex — MUR (Mega Ultra Rare)
Predicted price: ¥70,000-120,000 ($449-$769)
The crown jewel. MUR cards feature full gold etching with an elaborate circular background — and Ninja Spinner's MUR goes to the most popular Pokemon on the planet. Greninja topped the 2020 Pokemon of the Year global vote, beating Charizard, Pikachu, and every other contender.
The price range is wide because JPN analysts are split. SNKRDUNK projects ¥70,000+ based on conservative modeling. altema pushes ¥100,000-120,000, using the Inferno X Mega Charizard X MUR (currently ¥138,000) as a benchmark. The argument for the higher end: Greninja has broader international appeal than Charizard in the current meta of collectors, and the "ninja" aesthetic resonates heavily outside Japan.
Pull rate reality check: roughly 1 MUR per 50 boxes. At ¥10,000 per box, you'd spend ¥500,000 ($3,333) on average to pull one. This is a singles-buy card for most collectors.
#2 Mega Greninja ex — SAR (Special Art Rare)
Predicted price: ¥25,000-80,000 ($160-$513)
The SAR features a dynamic, full-art ninja-themed illustration — and this is where the real collector action happens. SAR pull rates sit around 1 per 6 boxes, making it achievable (if not probable) from a single box purchase.
altema's ¥70,000-80,000 estimate leans on the Crimson Haze Greninja SAR precedent, which drove box prices through the roof. SNKRDUNK's ¥25,000+ is more measured. The actual launch price will land somewhere in this range — expect Day 1 hype to push it higher before settling.
For comparison: Mega Gengar ex SAR from MEGA Dream ex sits at ¥48,000 three months after launch. Greninja's global popularity could push this SAR above that benchmark.
#3 Mega Dragalge ex — SAR
Predicted price: ¥6,000+ ($38+)
Dragalge's Poison/Dragon typing and the unique aesthetic of its Mega Evolution give this SAR sleeper potential. Not a mainstream chase card, but dedicated collectors of unusual Pokemon could drive sustained demand.
#4-10: The Rest of the Chase
| Rank | Card | Rarity | Predicted Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mega Floette ex | SAR | ¥5,000+ ($32+) |
| 5 | Cinccino ex | SAR | ¥4,500+ ($29+) |
| 6 | Roxie's Performance | SAR | ¥4,000+ ($26+) |
| 7 | AZ's Tranquility | SAR | ¥3,500+ ($22+) |
| 8 | Mega Greninja ex | SR | ¥2,000+ ($13+) |
| 9 | Roxie's Performance | SR | ¥1,800+ ($12+) |
| 10 | Mega Dragalge ex | SR | ¥1,000+ ($6+) |
Predicted prices from SNKRDUNK (March 2026). Pre-release estimates — actual prices will vary.
Mega Floette ex (#4) ties into the Legends Z-A storyline and has collector appeal through AZ's narrative arc. Roxie's Performance (#6) and AZ's Tranquility (#7) are Supporter SARs — these tend to hold value well due to playability and character art demand.
Should You Buy a Ninja Spinner Box?
At a market price of ~¥10,000 (~$64), Ninja Spinner is the most affordable entry point in the current MEGA series. Here's how it breaks down by buyer type.
For Collectors
Buy if you love Greninja. The SAR at approximately 1-in-6 box odds gives you a realistic shot at pulling the set's marquee card. Even if you miss the SAR, every box guarantees 4 RR, 3 AR, and 1 SR/SAR/MUR slot. The Kalos starter theme adds nostalgic value for Gen 6 fans.
For Competitive Players
Strong buy. Big Catch Net and Bubble Water Energy are format-defining cards for Water decks. Mega Greninja ex's "Deadly Shuriken" ability deals bench damage without attacking — a mechanic that could reshape competitive play. You'll want playsets of these, and pulling them from boxes is cheaper than buying singles at launch prices.
For Sealed Collectors
Solid hold potential. Compare the entry point:
| Set | Type | Market Price | Top Chase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ninja Spinner | Expansion Pack | ~¥10,000 | MUR ¥70K-120K |
| MEGA Dream ex | High Class Pack | ~¥9,000 | MUR ¥35K+ |
| Inferno X | Expansion Pack | ~¥14,000 | MUR ¥138K |
At ¥10,000, Ninja Spinner is the most affordable sealed entry among current MEGA sets — Inferno X has already risen to ¥14,000 on the back of Charizard demand. Greninja's broader global appeal could drive similar appreciation.
Pull Rates & Box EV Breakdown
At predicted prices, a Ninja Spinner box carries an estimated EV of ¥8,250 (~$53) against a market price of ~¥10,000 (~$64) — standard for Pokemon TCG boxes, where the real upside lives in the SAR/MUR slot.
Pull rate estimates are based on M-series expansion pack patterns (Mega Brave, Inferno X, Munikis Zero). These are community-derived figures, not official data.
Pull Rates by Rarity
| Rarity | Per Box (30 packs) | Per Pack | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| RR | 4 guaranteed | ~1/7.5 | Standard pull |
| AR | 3 guaranteed | ~1/10 | Illustration variants |
| SR | ~1 | ~1/30 | Guaranteed SR/SAR/MUR slot |
| SAR | ~1/6 boxes | ~1/180 | ~16.7% chance per box |
| MUR | ~1/50 boxes | ~1/1,500 | ~2% chance per box |
Estimated from 1,000+ box openings across M-series sets. Not officially confirmed by The Pokemon Company.
Box EV Calculation
| Slot | Avg Price | Quantity | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| RR | ¥200 | 4 | ¥800 |
| AR | ¥400 | 3 | ¥1,200 |
| SR | ¥1,500 | 0.83 | ¥1,245 |
| SAR | ¥15,000 | 0.167 | ¥2,505 |
| MUR | ¥70,000 | 0.02 | ¥1,400 |
| Commons/Uncommons/R | ¥50 | ~22 | ¥1,100 |
| Total EV | ¥8,250 |
What This Actually Means
Most boxes return ¥3,000-5,000 in card value. About 1 in 6 boxes hits a SAR worth ¥15,000+, pushing you well into profit. And roughly 1 in 50 boxes contains the MUR — a ¥70,000+ windfall.
Think of it this way: the guaranteed pulls cover 30-50% of the box cost. The remaining value is a weighted lottery on the SR/SAR/MUR slot.
Singles vs Box
| Card | Single Price | Boxes to Pull (avg) | Box Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Greninja ex SAR | ¥25,000+ | 6 | ¥60,000 |
| Mega Greninja ex MUR | ¥70,000+ | 50 | ¥500,000 |
| Mega Greninja ex SR | ¥2,000+ | ~1 | ¥10,000 |
For the SAR and MUR, buying singles is dramatically more cost-effective. Box purchases make sense if you want the full opening experience, need competitive playsets, or plan to hold sealed product.
Price Predictions & Market Context
Early price predictions show a wide gap between SNKRDUNK (¥70,000+ for MUR) and altema (¥100,000-120,000). Both previous MEGA series MUR cards have appreciated since launch — and Greninja's global popularity adds upside potential.
JPN Price Prediction Ranges
| Card | SNKRDUNK Estimate | altema Estimate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Greninja ex MUR | ¥70,000+ | ¥100,000-120,000 | 43-71% |
| Mega Greninja ex SAR | ¥25,000+ | ¥70,000-80,000 | 180-220% |
| Mega Dragalge ex SAR | ¥6,000+ | — | — |
SNKRDUNK bases estimates on marketplace transaction patterns. altema leans on the Inferno X Charizard MUR benchmark and Crimson Haze Greninja SAR precedent. The truth will land somewhere between — likely closer to SNKRDUNK for launch, with potential appreciation if Greninja demand follows historical patterns.
Past MEGA Set MUR Trajectories
| Set | MUR Card | Launch Price | Current Price | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Brave (Aug 2025) | Mega Lucario ex | ¥49,800 | ¥55,000 | +10% |
| Inferno X (Oct 2025) | Mega Charizard X ex | ¥100,000 | ¥138,000 | +38% |
| Ninja Spinner (Mar 2026) | Mega Greninja ex | ¥70,000+ (est.) | TBD | — |
Prices as of March 2026. Sources: SNKRDUNK, PriceCharting.
Both previous MEGA series MUR cards have appreciated since launch. The pattern suggests strong collector demand for gold-etched MUR cards as a category. Greninja's massive fanbase could accelerate this trend.
What Drives Greninja's Premium
Three factors separate Greninja from the pack:
- Global popularity: #1 in Pokemon of the Year 2020. Top 5 in every major fan poll since 2016
- Ninja aesthetic: The ninja motif has extraordinary appeal internationally — especially in North America and Europe
- Ash-Greninja nostalgia: The anime bond between Ash and Greninja created an emotional connection that still drives collector demand a decade later
JPN vs English: Ninja Spinner vs Chaos Rising
Chaos Rising — the English-language set incorporating Ninja Spinner cards — releases May 22, 2026. That's a 2-month window where JPN cards are the only option.
Which Version Should You Buy?
JPN (Ninja Spinner)
- Release: March 13, 2026
- Box Price: ~¥10,000 (~$64)
- 5 cards / 30 packs
- Price premium: +15-40% for SAR/MUR
- Higher grading appeal for JPN SARs
- 2-month head start
ENG (Chaos Rising)
- Release: May 22, 2026
- Box Price: ~$50-60 (est.)
- Pack structure TBD
- Base price for ENG market
- Standard grading appeal
- Playable in ENG tournaments
Buy JPN if: You want the card first, collect JPN art, or plan to grade and hold. JPN SARs and MURs consistently command a premium in the grading market.
Wait for ENG if: You play competitively in English-language tournaments, prefer reading card text, or want lower box prices.
Where to Buy Ninja Spinner
From Japan
JPN booster boxes ship internationally from specialized retailers. Pre-order windows are currently open at most JPN-focused shops, with delivery expected within 3-5 days of the March 13 release.
Shipping & Import Tips
- Typical box weight: ~500g → most carriers charge $10-15 for tracked shipping
- Total landed cost: ~$64 (box) + $12 (shipping) = ~$76 per box
- Customs: Most countries allow Pokemon cards duty-free under de minimis thresholds (US: $800, UK: £135, AU: AUD 1,000)
- Delivery time: 5-10 business days from Tokyo via tracked airmail
The Bottom Line
Three things to know about Ninja Spinner before March 13:
- Mega Greninja ex is the chase — both MUR (¥70,000-120,000) and SAR (¥25,000-80,000) variants could rank among the most valuable MEGA series cards. The SAR at 1-in-6 boxes is the realistic target
- Best value entry point — at ~¥10,000 per box (~$64), Ninja Spinner features the most popular Pokemon in the world at a lower price than Inferno X (¥14,000)
- Two-month JPN head start — Chaos Rising doesn't arrive until May 22. JPN cards build the early premium that historically persists
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the pull rates for Ninja Spinner?
Based on M-series expansion pack patterns, each box (30 packs) guarantees 4 RR, 3 AR, and 1 SR/SAR/MUR card. The SAR pull rate is estimated at roughly 1 per 6 boxes (~16.7% per box). The MUR is approximately 1 per 50 boxes (~2% per box). These are community-estimated figures from opening data across previous MEGA series sets — not officially confirmed by The Pokemon Company.
How much is Mega Greninja ex SAR worth?
Pre-release estimates range from ¥25,000 to ¥80,000 ($160-$513). SNKRDUNK projects ¥25,000+, while altema estimates ¥70,000-80,000 based on Crimson Haze Greninja SAR precedent. Actual launch prices will depend on pull rates and initial supply. Expect Day 1 prices to settle within 2-3 weeks as more boxes are opened.
Is Ninja Spinner worth buying?
For collectors — absolutely, especially Greninja fans. The SAR pull rate (1/6 boxes) makes it a realistic chase, and even boxes that miss the SAR contain guaranteed RR, AR, and SR slots that provide solid baseline value. For competitive players, Big Catch Net and Bubble Water Energy are likely format staples. Singles purchases of the SAR or MUR offer a more direct route to specific chase cards.
When does Ninja Spinner release in English?
Ninja Spinner cards will be included in the English set "Chaos Rising," releasing May 22, 2026. The JPN release is March 13, 2026 — giving JPN buyers a 2-month head start. JPN cards from the MEGA series have historically held a 15-40% price premium over their English equivalents.
How many packs are in a Ninja Spinner box?
Each Ninja Spinner booster box contains 30 packs, with 5 cards per pack (150 cards total). The base set contains 83+ cards, with an estimated 35-40 secret rares bringing the total to approximately 120 unique cards.
What is a MUR card in Pokemon?
MUR stands for Mega Ultra Rare — a rarity introduced in the MEGA series starting with Mega Brave. MUR cards feature full gold etching over the entire card surface with an elaborate circular background design. They are the rarest cards in MEGA series expansion packs, with pull rates estimated at 1 per 50 boxes. Previous MUR cards (Mega Lucario, Mega Charizard X) have all appreciated in value since launch.
Will Mega Greninja ex go up in value?
Both previous MUR cards in the MEGA series have appreciated: Mega Lucario ex MUR rose from ¥49,800 to ¥55,000 (+10%), and Mega Charizard X ex MUR climbed from ¥100,000 to ¥138,000 (+38%). Greninja's #1 global popularity ranking and the ninja aesthetic's international appeal suggest similar or stronger trajectory — but past performance doesn't guarantee future results.
What's the difference between Ninja Spinner and MEGA Dream ex?
Ninja Spinner is a standard expansion pack (5 cards/pack, 30 packs/box) focused on new cards. MEGA Dream ex is a High Class Pack (10 cards/pack, 10 packs/box) that reprints popular cards across multiple sets with higher pull rates. Both are part of the MEGA series, but they serve different purposes: Ninja Spinner for new card hunting, MEGA Dream ex for broader collection building.