In March 2026, Mega Greninja ex MUR was priced at ¥94,223 ($628) on the Japanese secondary market, the headline pull in Ninja Spinner (M4). Ninja Spinner pull rates are community estimates, not rates published by The Pokemon Company.
Ninja Spinner (M4) dropped in Japan on March 13, 2026, and early opening data followed. Over 1,000 boxes were tracked by Japanese collectors. The headline: SAR pulls land at roughly 1-in-3 boxes, while MUR sits at 1-in-50.
Mega Greninja ex MUR was priced at ¥94,223 ($628) in March 2026, the highest of the set’s Top 10 in March 2026. Community-tracked estimates put the SAR rate near 33% per box (about 1-in-3) and the MUR rate near 2% (about 1-in-50); The Pokemon Company had not published either rate as of March 2026.
- The Ninja Spinner (M4) booster box is currently listed in its Sealed and No Shrink options.
- Set reference: Ninja Spinner (M4) card list.
Ninja Spinner Set Overview
Ninja Spinner is the fourth expansion in the MEGA series and the first set to feature Mega Greninja ex — the Mega Evolution of Greninja, Pokemon of the Year 2020.
Set Specs
| Detail | Info |
|---|---|
| Set Name | Ninja Spinner (ニンジャスピナー) |
| Set Code | M4 |
| Series | MEGA Expansion Pack |
| JPN Release | March 13, 2026 |
| ENG Equivalent | Chaos Rising — May 22, 2026 |
| Total Cards | 83 base + ~37 secret rares (~120 total) |
| Packs/Box | 30 packs × 5 cards |
| MSRP | ¥5,400 |
| Rarity Breakdown | MUR: 1 · SAR: 6 · SR: 18 · AR: 12 · RR: 8 |
What’s New in M4
Mega Greninja ex headlines the set with a devastating 280-damage Ninja Spinner attack and the Lethal Shuriken ability that places 9 damage counters before attacking. Two trainer supporters — Roxie and AZ — get Special Art Rares, alongside four Mega Evolution Pokemon ex cards.
The competitive standouts are Big Catch Net (search your deck for any Basic Pokemon) and Bubble Water Energy (prevents retreat cost increases). Both cards shaped early MEGA-format deck building in March 2026.
JPN vs English Release Timeline
| Version | Release Date | Pre-release | Set Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPN (Ninja Spinner) | March 13, 2026 | — | ~120 cards |
| ENG (Chaos Rising) | May 22, 2026 | May 9-17, 2026 | 120+ cards |
March 2026 estimates put JPN versions of MEGA series cards at a 15-40% premium over their English counterparts. In those estimates the premium typically peaked in the first 3 months after the English release and narrowed over the following 6-12 months.
Ninja Spinner Rarity Breakdown (M4)
Ninja Spinner’s rarity breakdown is 1 MUR, 6 SAR, 18 SR, 12 AR and 8 RR across the 83 base cards plus secret rares. The full M4 card list covers all ~120 cards sorted by rarity with numbers and images.
Mega Greninja ex, Cinccino ex, Mega Floette ex, Roxie’s Performance, Mega Dragalge ex and AZ’s Tranquility are the six SARs.
Top 10 Most Valuable Cards in Ninja Spinner
Mega Greninja ex dominates — the MUR alone was worth more than the rest of the Top 10 combined in March 2026.
All prices reflect actual Japanese secondary market transactions as of March 2026, sourced from Mercari sold listings and SNKRDUNK data.
| Rank | Card | Rarity | Price (¥) | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mega Greninja ex | MUR | ¥94,223 | ~$628 |
| 2 | Mega Greninja ex | SAR | ¥40,429 | ~$270 |
| 3 | Cinccino ex | SAR | ¥3,803 | ~$25 |
| 4 | Mega Greninja ex | SR | ¥3,404 | ~$23 |
| 5 | Mega Floette ex | SAR | ¥3,246 | ~$22 |
| 6 | Roxie’s Performance | SAR | ¥3,143 | ~$21 |
| 7 | Mega Dragalge ex | SAR | ¥3,133 | ~$21 |
| 8 | AZ’s Tranquility | SAR | ¥1,584 | ~$11 |
| 9 | Special Red Card | SR | ¥1,407 | ~$9 |
| 10 | Mathieu | SR | ¥1,220 | ~$8 |
#1 Mega Greninja ex (MUR) — ¥94,223 (~$628)
The crown jewel of Ninja Spinner in the March 2026 data. Greninja won Pokemon of the Year in 2020 with over 140,000 votes, and this is its first Mega Evolution card. The MUR variant features a full-art illustration with premium texture.
The Mega Charizard X ex MUR from Inferno X launched at ¥100,000 and stood at ¥138,000 in the March 2026 data.
The catch: MUR pulls at roughly 1-in-50 boxes (2%). At the March 2026 reference price of ¥10,000 per box, that is a ¥500,000 average cost to pull one; the singles market is the realistic path for most collectors.
#2 Mega Greninja ex (SAR) — ¥40,429 (~$270)
The Special Art Rare is the realistic chase card. At a 33% SAR rate per box and six SAR variants in the set, each individual SAR has roughly a 5.5% per-box chance — meaning the Greninja SAR specifically appears in about 1-in-18 boxes.
The ¥40,429 price tag made it the second most valuable SAR in the MEGA series in the March 2026 data, behind only Mega Gengar ex SAR from MEGA Dream ex. For Greninja collectors, this is the card to target.
#3 Cinccino ex (SAR) — ¥3,803 (~$25)
A surprise entry at third place. Cinccino’s cute design and the ex treatment give it appeal beyond competitive use. The gap between #2 and #3 tells the story — this is firmly a Greninja-driven set.
#4 Mega Greninja ex (SR) — ¥3,404 (~$23)
The Super Rare variant offers the Mega Greninja artwork at a fraction of the SAR/MUR price. For players who want the card in their deck, this is the practical option.
#5 Mega Floette ex (SAR) — ¥3,246 (~$22)
Floette’s evolution into Mega Floette ex brings strong energy acceleration to the competitive scene, and the SAR illustration has drawn collector attention for its elegant design.
#6 Roxie’s Performance (SAR) — ¥3,143 (~$21)
Roxie’s supporter SAR features dynamic concert artwork. Trainer SARs tend to hold value well as the collector base for character art is loyal.
#7 Mega Dragalge ex (SAR) — ¥3,133 (~$21)
The poison-dragon Mega Evolution gets a moody Special Art Rare. Competitive players were eyeing Mega Dragalge ex for its disruptive ability in the MEGA format in March 2026.
#8 AZ’s Tranquility (SAR) — ¥1,584 (~$11)
AZ’s supporter card connects to the Kalos storyline from Pokemon X/Y. The SAR features the tall, somber character in a reflective scene. At ¥1,584 in March 2026, it was the lowest-priced SAR in the set.
#9 Special Red Card (SR) — ¥1,407 (~$9)
A highly playable trainer card that saw competitive adoption in March 2026. The SR variant adds collection value to a card you’ll want in your deck regardless.
#10 Mathieu (SR) — ¥1,220 (~$8)
Rounding out the Top 10, Mathieu’s SR provides another supporter option for the MEGA format.
Should You Buy a Ninja Spinner Booster Box?
The community-estimated 33% SAR rate is the main draw of Ninja Spinner (M4). The Ninja Spinner booster box is currently listed at ¥10,246 (~$67) for the Sealed option and ¥8,573 (~$56) for No Shrink; USD figures for store prices convert at ¥154/USD, approximate.
For Collectors
Greninja won Pokemon of the Year 2020, and three of the Top 10 cards feature Mega Greninja ex across MUR, SAR, and SR rarities. At the community-estimated 33% SAR rate, roughly 1-in-3 boxes contains a Special Art Rare worth ¥1,584-¥40,429 in the March 2026 data.
For a Greninja fan, the SAR single at ¥40,429 (~$270) in the March 2026 data avoids the pull variance.
Open 3 boxes for better odds at a SAR: at the community-estimated rate, SAR pulls land in roughly 1-in-3 boxes. If it is the Greninja SAR (1-in-6 chance among SARs), that card was ¥40,429 in the March 2026 data.
For Competitive Players
Big Catch Net and Bubble Water Energy are the meta-relevant cards from this set. Both are regular rarity and were under ¥300 each as singles in March 2026. Special Red Card (SR, ¥1,407 in March 2026) was seeing competitive play across multiple archetypes.
If you’re buying strictly for play, singles are more efficient than boxes. If you also collect, the box adds chase cards to the competitive staples.
For Sealed Collectors
In the March 2026 launch period, Ninja Spinner sat at ¥10,000 per box, against MEGA Dream ex at ¥9,200 (High Class Pack) and Inferno X at ¥8,000 (which launched at ¥7,500).
| Feature | Ninja Spinner (M4) | MEGA Dream ex (M2A) | Inferno X (M3) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Type | Expansion Pack | High Class Pack | Expansion Pack |
| BOX Price (March 2026) | ¥10,000 (~$67) | ¥9,200 (~$61) | ¥8,000 (~$53) |
| Top Card Value | ¥94,223 (MUR) | ¥89,000 (MUR) | ¥138,000 (MUR) |
| SAR Rate | ~1/3 boxes | ~1/4 boxes | ~1/5 boxes |
| Chase Pokemon | Greninja | Gengar | Charizard |
| Packs/Box | 30 | 10 | 30 |
Cross-set comparison based on March 2026 launch-period data.
Pull Rates & Box EV Breakdown
Japanese community tracking of 1,000+ box openings reports 4 RRs, 3 ARs and 1 SR-or-better card per box.
Pull Rates by Rarity
| Rarity | Per Box | Chance | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| RR (Double Rare) | 4 | Reported in every box | 4 per box in community data |
| AR (Art Rare) | 3 | Reported in every box | 3 per box in community data |
| SR (Super Rare) | ~0.77 | ~65% of boxes | Fills the high-rarity slot when no SAR/MUR |
| SAR (Special Art Rare) | ~0.33 | ~33% of boxes | 1-in-3 boxes (6 variants) |
| MUR (Mega Ultra Rare) | ~0.02 | ~2% of boxes | 1-in-50 boxes |
Every Ninja Spinner box guarantees 4 RRs, 3 ARs, and 1 SR-or-better card. Pull rate estimates based on 1,000+ box community data. Not officially confirmed by The Pokemon Company.
Box EV Calculation
On March 2026 card prices and community-estimated pull rates, the average card value per box was:
| Rarity | Cards/Box | Avg Card Value | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| MUR | 0.02 | ¥94,223 | ¥1,884 |
| SAR | 0.33 | ¥9,223 | ¥3,044 |
| SR | 0.65 | ¥700 | ¥455 |
| AR | 3.0 | ¥750 | ¥2,250 |
| RR | 4.0 | ¥200 | ¥800 |
| R/U/C bulk | 22.0 | ~¥20 | ¥440 |
| Total Box EV | ¥8,873 |
BOX price: ¥10,000 → Total EV: ¥8,873 → EV ratio: 89%. The SAR slot alone contributes ¥3,044 (34%) of total box value.
On the March 2026 figures the SAR slot contributed ¥3,044 (a 33% chance at a card pool averaging ¥9,223), and the MUR slot contributed ¥1,884 despite the 2% pull rate, because of its ¥94,223 March 2026 price.
Variance Reality Check
Community EV estimates in March 2026 put a typical box at ¥3,500-¥5,000 in value (SR + ARs + RRs). The EV rises to ¥8,873 because roughly 1-in-3 boxes hits a SAR worth ¥1,584-¥40,429, and 1-in-50 hits the MUR jackpot.
A 3-box run (¥30,000 at the March 2026 reference price) has a good chance of including a SAR at the community-estimated rate.
Price Trends & Market Context
The March 2026 data covers the launch week, when Ninja Spinner prices were still settling.
Launch Week Pricing
In the March 2026 data, the Mega Greninja ex MUR was reported above ¥100,000 on day one and ¥94,223 later in launch week, a 5-6% difference that was typical for high-demand MURs in the first week.
The SAR sat in the ¥38,000-¥42,000 range since launch day, and the trainer SARs (Roxie, AZ) had seen 20-30% adjustments from initial listings.
Past MEGA Set Trajectories
| Set | Top Card | Launch Price | Price (March 2026) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inferno X (M3) | Mega Charizard X MUR | ¥100,000 | ¥138,000 | +38% |
| MEGA Dream ex (M2A) | Mega Gengar MUR | ¥95,000 | ¥89,000 | -6% |
| Mega Brave (M1L) | Mega Lucario MUR | ¥80,000 | ¥72,000 | -10% |
The pattern in the March 2026 data: character-driven MURs with massive fanbases (Charizard) had appreciated over time, while others had settled after the initial period.
All prices reflect March 2026 market data unless dated otherwise.
Why Greninja Draws Attention
Three points about the card’s appeal:
- Pokemon of the Year 2020 — Over 140,000 votes
- First Mega Greninja card — The first Mega Evolution card for Greninja, a historic first in the TCG. Collectors consistently pay premiums for debut cards
- Ninja motif — Greninja’s ninja design is the set’s theme, and its design resonates strongly in Western markets, driving international demand for JPN versions
JPN vs English: Ninja Spinner vs Chaos Rising
The English equivalent, Chaos Rising, released May 22, 2026.
Release Timeline
Ninja Spinner released in Japan on March 13, 2026, 70 days before English Chaos Rising on May 22, 2026. Japanese buyers had Ninja Spinner from March 13.
Historical JPN Premium
March 2026 estimates put JPN MEGA series cards above their English counterparts:
- MUR cards: 25-40% JPN premium
- SAR cards: 15-30% JPN premium
- SR cards: 10-20% JPN premium
Read our full Japanese vs English Pokemon cards comparison for detailed data.
Which Version Should You Buy?
| Factor | JPN (Ninja Spinner) | ENG (Chaos Rising) |
|---|---|---|
| Release | March 13, 2026 ✓ | May 22, 2026 |
| Card Premium | 15-40% higher (March 2026 estimate) | Baseline |
| Tournament Play | JPN-only events | Official tournaments ✓ |
| Resale Market | Global demand | Regional demand |
Collectors: the JPN version came first.
Competitive players: English cards are required for sanctioned tournaments (Chaos Rising).
Where to Buy Ninja Spinner
Buy from Japan
The Ninja Spinner (M4) booster box is currently listed in its Sealed and No Shrink options and ships from Tokyo.
For more on buying Japanese Pokemon cards internationally, check our complete guide to buying from Japan.
Shipping & Import Tips
- Tracking: Full tracking on all orders
The Bottom Line
Three things to know about Ninja Spinner:
- Mega Greninja ex MUR at ¥94,223 ($628) was the Top 10’s highest figure in March 2026 — and at a community-estimated 2% pull rate, the singles market is the realistic path for most collectors
- SAR at a community-estimated 33% pull rate — 1-in-3 boxes hits a SAR, with the SAR pool averaging ¥9,223 in the March 2026 data
- The JPN version came first — with a 15-40% JPN premium in the March 2026 estimates
Greninja is the set’s headline Pokemon. The pull rates are community estimates, and the 89% EV ratio reflects March 2026 prices. If Greninja is your Pokemon, this set is built for you.
Check out our complete ranking of all MEGA series sets to see how Ninja Spinner stacks up.
FAQ
What are the community-estimated pull rates for Ninja Spinner?
Based on 1,000+ box community data: 4 RRs and 3 ARs per box, plus 1 SR/SAR/MUR slot. SAR rate is approximately 33% (1-in-3 boxes), and MUR rate is approximately 2% (1-in-50 boxes). These are community-tracked estimates, not officially confirmed rates.
How much was Mega Greninja ex MUR in March 2026?
As of March 2026, Mega Greninja ex MUR was priced at approximately ¥94,223 (~$628) on the Japanese secondary market. Shop buy-back prices were ¥60,000-70,000.
What did the March 2026 data say about a Ninja Spinner box?
At the March 2026 reference box price of ¥10,000 (~$67), the derived box EV was approximately ¥8,873 (89%). The community-estimated 33% SAR pull rate meant roughly 1-in-3 boxes held a SAR worth ¥1,584-¥40,429.
When did Ninja Spinner release in English?
The English equivalent, Chaos Rising, released May 22, 2026, with pre-release events from May 9-17. It carries the Mega Greninja ex cards adapted from Ninja Spinner plus cards from other JPN sets.
How many SARs are in the Ninja Spinner set?
Ninja Spinner contains 6 Special Art Rare cards: Mega Greninja ex, Cinccino ex, Mega Floette ex, Roxie’s Performance, Mega Dragalge ex, and AZ’s Tranquility. Each box has approximately a 33% chance of containing one SAR.
What’s the difference between Ninja Spinner and MEGA Dream ex?
Ninja Spinner is a standard expansion pack (30 packs, ¥5,400 MSRP) while MEGA Dream ex is a High Class Pack (10 packs, higher rarity rates). Ninja Spinner has a 33% SAR rate versus MEGA Dream ex’s ~25%. The top chase cards differ: Mega Greninja ex MUR (¥94,223 in March 2026) vs Mega Gengar ex MUR (¥89,000 in March 2026).
Should I buy JPN Ninja Spinner or English Chaos Rising?
March 2026 estimates put JPN versions of MEGA series cards at a 15-40% premium over English versions. The JPN release came 70 days before Chaos Rising. For competitive tournament play, English cards (Chaos Rising) are required.
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